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Nov 6, 2012
11/12
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look at president obama. he has a one percentage point decline in unemployment rate in 12 months prior and we don't know what will happen. if you just get question marks in, we wait to see what margin plus or minus of his victory. we did a poll and asked people who are unemployed how are you going to vote in the election. let's look at the overall vote which comes from nbc/"wall street journal." likely voters, a split electorate. you would think unemployed would break in favor of the challenger. doesn't happen. 48-48 among those who have been unemployed in the last four years or someone in the household has been unemployed. if only someone in the household, they break 51-48. if he are unemployed they break by five percentage points in favor of obama. that's the national level. what about the state level? again, it's a confused picture. first you look at this map. darker is worse for unemployment. what's dark? new york is dark. in higher third of unemployment. what else is dark? california is dark. these are s
look at president obama. he has a one percentage point decline in unemployment rate in 12 months prior and we don't know what will happen. if you just get question marks in, we wait to see what margin plus or minus of his victory. we did a poll and asked people who are unemployed how are you going to vote in the election. let's look at the overall vote which comes from nbc/"wall street journal." likely voters, a split electorate. you would think unemployed would break in favor of the...
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Nov 5, 2012
11/12
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you think obama is going to win. explain. >> i know i have disagreements here. >> there's a lot going on in there. do you even have room in there to pick electoral votes of states. >> i have room to talk about the greatest rookie ever in my fantasy league. total vacuum. i feel all of the -- this is my rap. i say swing states all go for obama and that the horse race is made up of people who are not necessarily polled correctly and i think these states are obama states. i'm just saying if it's a swing state, it goes to obama. >> others would say independents skew toward the challenger. some polls may not reflect enthusiasm. >> so happy when we're no lodngr talking about this. god. sorry. >> i'll talk storm then. >> let's talk about netflix poison pill they just put in. that's big. >> that's a great story. >> of course they got that saying we're going to protect shareholders. make sure everybody is okay. >> you can't firebomb that. i'm willing to firebomb the election as a way to -- i really do believe that the swing st
you think obama is going to win. explain. >> i know i have disagreements here. >> there's a lot going on in there. do you even have room in there to pick electoral votes of states. >> i have room to talk about the greatest rookie ever in my fantasy league. total vacuum. i feel all of the -- this is my rap. i say swing states all go for obama and that the horse race is made up of people who are not necessarily polled correctly and i think these states are obama states. i'm just...
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Nov 30, 2012
11/12
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. >> president obama is meeting with high profile chief executive officers today to talk about country's fiscal issues. >> we're here to support doing the right thing and putting america back to work. >> we don't legislate but we know the consequences of a failure to reach an agreement. >> only way democracy works is through compromise at the end of the day. >> i'm optimistic we'll continue to work together. >> our ultimate goal is an agreement that gets long-term deficit under control in a way that is fair and balanced. >> stocks trade on fiscal cliff comments from president obama and john boehner. >> no substantive progress has been made in talks between the white house and the house over the last two weeks. the white house has to get serious. >> republicans know where we stand. we have said it. we've said it. we've said it so many times. >> i think all of us today are confident we can reach a bipartisan agreement by christmastime. >> according to a congressional republican aides who have talked to "the wall street journal," they obtained a copy of the white house prover here in the ne
. >> president obama is meeting with high profile chief executive officers today to talk about country's fiscal issues. >> we're here to support doing the right thing and putting america back to work. >> we don't legislate but we know the consequences of a failure to reach an agreement. >> only way democracy works is through compromise at the end of the day. >> i'm optimistic we'll continue to work together. >> our ultimate goal is an agreement that gets...
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Nov 14, 2012
11/12
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later, yesterday he sat down with president obama and other labor leaders. today he sits down with national education association dennis van roekel joins us to talk about the cliff. i have a cold... i took dayquil, but i still have a runny nose. [ male announcer ] dayquil doesn't treat that. huh? [ male announcer ] alka-seltzer plus rushes relief to all your worst cold symptoms, plus it relieves your runny nose. [ sighs ] thank you! [ male announcer ] you're welcome. that's the cold truth! he's, he's on my back about providing for his little girl. hey don't worry. e-trade's got a killer investing dashboard. everything is on one page. i'm watching you. oh yeah? well i'm watching you, watching him. [ male announcer ] try the e-trade 360 investing dashboard. f we go over the fiscal cliff, how could it affected taxes for everyone? the answer is different groups will be affected very differently. steve liesman has more on the numbers. >> what we do know is if we go over the cliff, no change in what is mandated by those rules. everybody will pay more. we've divide
later, yesterday he sat down with president obama and other labor leaders. today he sits down with national education association dennis van roekel joins us to talk about the cliff. i have a cold... i took dayquil, but i still have a runny nose. [ male announcer ] dayquil doesn't treat that. huh? [ male announcer ] alka-seltzer plus rushes relief to all your worst cold symptoms, plus it relieves your runny nose. [ sighs ] thank you! [ male announcer ] you're welcome. that's the cold truth!...
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Nov 7, 2012
11/12
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obama care is here to stay. barbara ryan is founder of barbara ryan advisers and former senior pharmaceutical analyst at deutsche bank. welcome to the program. >> good to be here. >> we've had two near death experiences for obama care. the supreme court decision and then the election and now people will see of course just beyond what it means for youngsters staying on their parents' health care plans. with he get the full rollout in 2014. mandatory health care for everybody. you are a pharmaceutical analyst but more broadly, what does it mean for the industry would you say? >> break it into two parts. services is where implementation of obama care is going to have its most significant effects. the fact that it looks like it's here to stay given the elections last night and obviously the supreme court decision, we see therefore the greatest volatility in the hmos negatively affected over time and hospitals which would be favorably impacted. we see impact on those stocks today. on the product side, i think the imp
obama care is here to stay. barbara ryan is founder of barbara ryan advisers and former senior pharmaceutical analyst at deutsche bank. welcome to the program. >> good to be here. >> we've had two near death experiences for obama care. the supreme court decision and then the election and now people will see of course just beyond what it means for youngsters staying on their parents' health care plans. with he get the full rollout in 2014. mandatory health care for everybody. you are...
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Nov 2, 2012
11/12
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the obama administration said the following, obama for america -- let's go to the bank of america statement first. bank of america, we don't discuss client details but this loan has been disclosed as required by federal election commission rules and it is a standard commercial loan at a market competitive rate. that's what they say. i cannot prove that, carl, that it is market competitive rates. obama for america issued the following statement in regards to this loan. the loan was reported in mid-october in our fec chris closure and was covered by the press. it is a line of credit established by the campaign to ensure cash flow flexibility. we have not drawn on it. now, in addition to the obama campaign, mitt romney borrowed some money. he didn't go to the bank of america. went to the bank of georgetown, and he took out a loan of $20 million, the rate even more attractive, 0.045%. that was a loan taken out august 22nd, payable in 2013. there are some differences here because, again, bank of america, a public bank showned by the shareholders, did receive a bailout. a lot of people wonder whe
the obama administration said the following, obama for america -- let's go to the bank of america statement first. bank of america, we don't discuss client details but this loan has been disclosed as required by federal election commission rules and it is a standard commercial loan at a market competitive rate. that's what they say. i cannot prove that, carl, that it is market competitive rates. obama for america issued the following statement in regards to this loan. the loan was reported in...
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Nov 8, 2012
11/12
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i think that obama, whether you like him or not, obama said you raise revenue. have a talk. boehner did mention raising revenues but does he have people in the tea party wing this agrees with him? i don't know. what do you think? >> i don't know. i mean, in the meantime, speaking of sort of regulatory issues, jp morgan today with the capital plan they say is regulators say is okay. >> yeah. >> 3 billion buy back in the quarter. next quarter. >> checked with them. that's the stock that came down because romney lost and very hard to relate on the loss versus dividend increase and buy back but i think the overreaction in the banks was considerable yesterday. i look for them to stabilize. >> brings to mind an upgrade today. >> an upgrade of isi and they expect increased dividends and buybacks and every time they buy back shares, the intangible book value goes up. and bank of america was one of those stocks hit very, very hard within the financial sector in yesterday's selloff. down 7%. that was the steep decline. this call this morning, very bullish. $18 a share by 2015. >> i kn
i think that obama, whether you like him or not, obama said you raise revenue. have a talk. boehner did mention raising revenues but does he have people in the tea party wing this agrees with him? i don't know. what do you think? >> i don't know. i mean, in the meantime, speaking of sort of regulatory issues, jp morgan today with the capital plan they say is regulators say is okay. >> yeah. >> 3 billion buy back in the quarter. next quarter. >> checked with them. that's...
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Nov 28, 2012
11/12
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the third aspect is the obama care taxes that are coming. there's a 3.8% increase on capital gains, on dividends, interest income for people making 200,000 or more. that's already coming. that's baked in the cake. what the president wants is an additional tax increase rate increase on the same group of people he's already put a rate increase on in january. we're pushing back saying they are taking a hit in january based on the obama care taxes. why talk about a double tax rate increase? second thing to remember in 2007 we spent a trillion dollars less than we spent this year. the revenue is almost identical. 2007 to this year. the issue is not can we raise more taxes. the issue is we increased spending a trillion dollars and our simple push is to say why don't we look at spending? that's the major issue. we can't keep raising taxes and saying we'll just keep raising taxes as long as we raise spending. we're overspending. everyone is looking at congressional republicans saying what are you going to do on tax? no one is looking at democrats sa
the third aspect is the obama care taxes that are coming. there's a 3.8% increase on capital gains, on dividends, interest income for people making 200,000 or more. that's already coming. that's baked in the cake. what the president wants is an additional tax increase rate increase on the same group of people he's already put a rate increase on in january. we're pushing back saying they are taking a hit in january based on the obama care taxes. why talk about a double tax rate increase? second...
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Nov 12, 2012
11/12
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my concern is that obama is beginning to grandstand. if you look at who he's meeting with, it looks like he might be preparing for a huge fight for his legacy, which actually might push us further back than a lot of people have bargained for. >> what you'll see with obama meeting with progressive groups and business leaders, he doesn't want any constituent group out there to feel like they were left aside. he's got to do that prudently before they get to the point where they actually cut a deal. what you saw last week from speaker boehner was a signal that he's willing to raise revenue and he's willing to go back to those negotiations that broke off last year between himself and the president of the united states and come to some kind of deal. the trick is we don't know exactly why those negotiations broke up. the republicans say one thing. democrats say another. who is right? we don't know. we weren't in that room. they were very close last year. if they can go back and get that done and both sides can agree, they might be able to do i
my concern is that obama is beginning to grandstand. if you look at who he's meeting with, it looks like he might be preparing for a huge fight for his legacy, which actually might push us further back than a lot of people have bargained for. >> what you'll see with obama meeting with progressive groups and business leaders, he doesn't want any constituent group out there to feel like they were left aside. he's got to do that prudently before they get to the point where they actually cut...
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Nov 16, 2012
11/12
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president obama won on tuesday last. the speaker of the house congratulated him and lid out a pathway for the president to lead the nation on how to avoid the fiscal cliff and transform us in to the world class status we want to stay and maintain. so far i think the language is good. there's opportunities i think to find common ground. there's no voices on the republican side really saying let's go over this fiscal cliff. instead, let's find a remedy and move forward. >> we've already gotten a trial balloon of sorts this morning from the journal talking about various talks within the white house to revamp a sequester. as we go our way in to thanksgiving, obviously, a holiday week, a shortened week, how attuned is your radar to some of these trial balloons and which do you think are going to resonate? >> we are all very attuned to when's going on but remember the house of representatives already acted on these -- both of these issues relating to the fiscal cliff by arguing to extend the current rates for another year and
president obama won on tuesday last. the speaker of the house congratulated him and lid out a pathway for the president to lead the nation on how to avoid the fiscal cliff and transform us in to the world class status we want to stay and maintain. so far i think the language is good. there's opportunities i think to find common ground. there's no voices on the republican side really saying let's go over this fiscal cliff. instead, let's find a remedy and move forward. >> we've already...
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Nov 13, 2012
11/12
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obama meeting labor leaders today. eamon javers has more live from washington. >> we're about one hour away from the labor leaders and progressive group leaders meeting with the president on the issue of the fiscal cliff. they'll talk a lot about what to do on entitlement spending here. that's one of the areas where a likely deal would involve cuts. i've been talking to leading labor leaders in washington here this morning. they tell me what they're going to tell the president an hour from now. we're not in favor of benefit cuts on social insurance programs. they're also going to tell the president that he needs to stand firm on the bush tax cuts and they say they'll back him 100% if he does that. they feel, the labor leaders do, this election was about something and obama won. therefore he has a strong hand and they also say that government needs to drive a harder bargain with health care providers to bring down costs including things like negotiating prices on medicare part d drugs with the drug companies in order to
obama meeting labor leaders today. eamon javers has more live from washington. >> we're about one hour away from the labor leaders and progressive group leaders meeting with the president on the issue of the fiscal cliff. they'll talk a lot about what to do on entitlement spending here. that's one of the areas where a likely deal would involve cuts. i've been talking to leading labor leaders in washington here this morning. they tell me what they're going to tell the president an hour...
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Nov 15, 2012
11/12
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the next four years as it relates to the obama administration is not positive for stocks. they don't want to say it. they don't want to write it. but you can find it everywhere. the evidence is mounting all over the street that the last two weeks there is a massive outside allocation shift as a result of it. this is what i want to say. i find it very disturbing when people walk into this building, come on air, talk about the portfolios. if you're a loan only manager you have to try to find stocks that are working but, remember, there's nothing wrong with holding cash or saying it like you think it is. i want to point something out here. this is the wellington letter. he writes he's been doing this for 35 years. this is what he said in the edition that came out yesterday. bat ten down the hatches. protect your assets, your business, your job. this is no longer a theoretical exercise. i want to tell you, carl, i find it disgusting that a lot of people are saying that to their clients and they're saying that across the board but they're not putting it in print. if you're sayi
the next four years as it relates to the obama administration is not positive for stocks. they don't want to say it. they don't want to write it. but you can find it everywhere. the evidence is mounting all over the street that the last two weeks there is a massive outside allocation shift as a result of it. this is what i want to say. i find it very disturbing when people walk into this building, come on air, talk about the portfolios. if you're a loan only manager you have to try to find...
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Nov 19, 2012
11/12
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did you see over the weekend president obama was in bangkok confident a deal could be made. geithner sounded confident a deal could be made. it's funny. a number of guys this weekend mentioned to me the signs to buy would not come from congress. it's going to come from the irs. a number of guys have been mentioning it's likely the deal looks possible or even very likely. the irs will issue a directive to everybody essentially telling everybody not to change withholding rates if we look like we have a deal. that's exempting the top 2% of course. when you get that even if you don't have a deal, that's a detectivi directive that the thing will happen there. keep your book light. a lot of guys play different books. 60% long, 40% short. a lot of guys a good part of their books are now in the cash side right now. the important thing is looking at some of these hedge fund returns, most returns are up 4%, 5%, 6%. somewhere around there. the s&p is up 8%. most of them are still under performing on the year. you mentioned the impact on sandy and manufacturing. this certainly makes sen
did you see over the weekend president obama was in bangkok confident a deal could be made. geithner sounded confident a deal could be made. it's funny. a number of guys this weekend mentioned to me the signs to buy would not come from congress. it's going to come from the irs. a number of guys have been mentioning it's likely the deal looks possible or even very likely. the irs will issue a directive to everybody essentially telling everybody not to change withholding rates if we look like we...
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Nov 9, 2012
11/12
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he's been president obama's trusted economic adviser for four years now. my information that geithner will stay through fiscal cliff and unlikely until a successor is well along the way. that means he could leave as early as january if congress confirms replacement quickly or all the way to the inauguration. what is the next treasury secretary's resume look like? i put together some ideas. first thing is, maybe the most important thing for right now, is that he's an expert in government finance and tax reform because the fiscal cliff is the first thing on the issue. has to work well with others, especially the gop. geithner's got pretty good marks in that. he has to be skilled at reaching out to the business community, given the problems president obama has had. he or she has to have experience in international financial diplomacy. zoom in on this here. the fmm, financial meltdown manager. who is the guy you want in the seat if we have another financial crisis? much depends on who's chosen to succeed geithner. is it an inside pick, which would mean someone
he's been president obama's trusted economic adviser for four years now. my information that geithner will stay through fiscal cliff and unlikely until a successor is well along the way. that means he could leave as early as january if congress confirms replacement quickly or all the way to the inauguration. what is the next treasury secretary's resume look like? i put together some ideas. first thing is, maybe the most important thing for right now, is that he's an expert in government finance...
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Nov 29, 2012
11/12
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obama/boehner comments about a possible agreement. geithner with congressional leaders would set up any kind of good news for a euro to push through that 1.30 level. >> what are your levels? >> i like to go long. actually, i just bought euro literally in my hand held before i sat down at 1.29.70. you want to look for a push through that november triple top high over 1.30. we could target the 1.30, 1.40, the high from october. traditionally in the technical analysis world we have a triple top setting up. those do not hold. i like the trade up towards a test of that october high. >> i'm surprised you don't think the yen is a better trade at the moment. there's a lot of chatter everywhere else about it. >> it's a great point, simon. you know, the boj is doing everything they can to end their 13, 15-year deflationary cycle. my thought on that is you don't get hit by the train you see coming. i feel like the market is so focused on the short yen trade, i think it could work in the short term. you could pair a euro long like i'm talking abo
obama/boehner comments about a possible agreement. geithner with congressional leaders would set up any kind of good news for a euro to push through that 1.30 level. >> what are your levels? >> i like to go long. actually, i just bought euro literally in my hand held before i sat down at 1.29.70. you want to look for a push through that november triple top high over 1.30. we could target the 1.30, 1.40, the high from october. traditionally in the technical analysis world we have a...
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Nov 21, 2012
11/12
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president obama wasn't interested in a deal because he didn't have much leverage. that meant any deal would favor the republicans and alienate his core constituencies. you fast forward to now, look, all negotiations go through ups and downs, but the bottom line is that both sides need a deal. if the republicans push us off the fiscal cliff, they will be blamed for the subsequent recession and they'll pay the price in 2014. president obama also needs a deal because history doesn't remember who the speaker of the house was during a period of weak economic growth. the president gets the credit or the blame. he's going to be written about for 300 years and he does not want to preside over eight years of the weakest growth in u.s. history. so, he needs a deal so that the next four years are better than the last four years. >> we'll see. obviously, still the opening days of this process. charlie, the fed chairman in new york yesterday referring to these talks, reiterating how important it is they get done. he coined the term, fiscal cliff, "the washington post" today say
president obama wasn't interested in a deal because he didn't have much leverage. that meant any deal would favor the republicans and alienate his core constituencies. you fast forward to now, look, all negotiations go through ups and downs, but the bottom line is that both sides need a deal. if the republicans push us off the fiscal cliff, they will be blamed for the subsequent recession and they'll pay the price in 2014. president obama also needs a deal because history doesn't remember who...
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Nov 26, 2012
11/12
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the not well capitalized person is afraid of obama care because headlines have been not they are afraid of what the health care bill will look like. what is my health care going to look like next year. i don't know. what is my employees' health care going to look like? i don't know. they will wait to hire. well capitalized people say i'll make ten investments. a couple home runs. >> you hope. >> a lot of business have failed and it's painful. >> taxes are not top of mind. they're not top of mind. >> always been my experience at least in talking to those people. >> it's a washington thing to talk about that. i just don't think they start a lot of businesses. governor norquist was in my class at college. governor norquist stands for -- you can argue longer term he's just a complete libertarian who wants the government to be nil. he doesn't want a government. that's libertarian. not a republican for heaven sake. not a traditional republican. lincoln who came up with the idea of having higher rates for richer people because he said they benefit from the country. he seems like just a radical
the not well capitalized person is afraid of obama care because headlines have been not they are afraid of what the health care bill will look like. what is my health care going to look like next year. i don't know. what is my employees' health care going to look like? i don't know. they will wait to hire. well capitalized people say i'll make ten investments. a couple home runs. >> you hope. >> a lot of business have failed and it's painful. >> taxes are not top of mind....
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Nov 27, 2012
11/12
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he's known boehner for years and believes the speaker wants to make a deal with president obama to avoid the fiscal cliff, but he's seen washington's dysfunction and has his doubts. >> he's somewhat just like the president. it's time to do ahead and do your job. >> speaker boehner is secure enough in his own district that his constituents will give him a free hand to negotiate. his bigger challenge is pulling together republicans from districts across the country behind any deal he ultimately strikes with president obama. >> carl, that's not just john boehner's job. it's also the job of eric cantor, the majority leader the on the democratic seed, harry reid and chuck schumer have to pull their flock behind any potential deal struck. that's not easy getting 60 votes the in the senate and the majority of the house. >> rangling cats on both sides, john. the president meeting with business executives at the white house, going to pennsylvania this week to visit a small business. all theater, or is there something bigger going on? >> he's trying to put pressure on the congress and generate mor
he's known boehner for years and believes the speaker wants to make a deal with president obama to avoid the fiscal cliff, but he's seen washington's dysfunction and has his doubts. >> he's somewhat just like the president. it's time to do ahead and do your job. >> speaker boehner is secure enough in his own district that his constituents will give him a free hand to negotiate. his bigger challenge is pulling together republicans from districts across the country behind any deal he...